What is up and welcome back to the Thriving Stylist podcast. I’m your host Britt Siva, and this is an exciting one. It’s the episode everybody waits for every single year. This is our 2026 predictions podcast, and I went and looked before I recorded this episode. I was like, wow, I’ve been doing this for a few years. 2018 was the first time I did one. I thought it was more recent than that. I thought it was in the last five years. Nope. 2018 is when I first did a predictions podcast, and if you. Google Search Thriving stylist podcast predictions.
You can see the old episodes or if you just scroll on iTunes or Spotify or wherever you like to listen, they’re all still there. You can listen. What you’ll find is the predictions are correct. The predictions do end up panning out, and people always ask, how do you come up with this stuff, especially when sometimes I’ll say some predictions that aren’t what the industry wants to hear. And whenever I sit down to release these episodes, I always have to ask myself. What information do you really want to put out there without being called a fear mongerer? And it’s a fine line because if, if we both know historically my predictions have been correct and I’ve been able to say, listen, over the next 1 year or the next 2 years, these are the things that are gonna happen and then they do happen. If it’s information you don’t want to hear, does that make me wrong for sharing it? Probably not, but when you share information ahead of the reality, it can land uncomfortably because it makes people start to get nervous about things that haven’t yet happened and for all of us when we’re worrying about things that we’re not currently in control of, it’s very unsettling.
And so I know that these predictions podcasts are like a double edged sword because knowledge is power. It’s great to know what’s coming up. It’s great to know how to best prepare, but it can feel overwhelming. So I just want this episode to kind of come with that disclaimer disclosure of I know some of what I’m gonna share is gonna be uncomfortable. Historically my predictions have shaken out to be correct though. So even if I share something that doesn’t feel good or isn’t what you want to hear, marinate in it, chew on it. Be mad at me for a few weeks, that’s totally fine, but also realize there’s a pretty good possibility that what I’m about to share is going to be correct and at least you’ll have known if some of these things don’t shake out for you, it probably wasn’t a you thing, it was probably just an industry trend thing and you have. The opportunity to course correct at any given time.
That’s the wonderful thing about our businesses is they’re actually very forgiving. There’s very few things you can do in your business that are complete doomsday. So, if you have any of these things cooking and you’re like, oh my gosh, I’m in trouble, don’t worry. Most of these things we can work our way out of, we just need a little bit of strategy to get there. OK, oh, other bonus thing, this year I have 14 predictions. It’s a lot. I think it’s the most I’ve ever made, but we’re kind of at a really important crossroads in the industry, so it was important to really get into it. If you head to thriving stylist.com/mstknow, so MUS. T KNOW, you can actually get a breakdown of all 14. So I share all 14 predictions and how to counterbalance them. So if you’re like, I wish you would just give me a list, I do. You can download it there, you can just save it to your phone, keep it handy. It’s a free download if you just wanna have a hard copy, you can. Oh, other thing I should share. This list I did not compile myself this year. I got together with our thriving stylist coaches, Coach 9 and Coach Carly, and we all said, OK, based on the conversations we’re having, you can look, we’ve had over 4000 comments in our thriving stylist community just year to date, so we’re seeing hundreds of questions and comments. Comments come through every single month and based on what we’re seeing and based on, listen, we’re able to look at the back end of salon numbers and stylist numbers and all kinds of things based on what we’re seeing and based on what we’re feeling and based on what we’re hearing, we were able to collaboratively come together with what I really think are very strong predictions for 2026. So thank you to our amazing coaches. I could not have done this without you. So I broke the predictions down into categories because there are so many of them. So we have pricing, and there’s a few predictions there. We have marketing. Few there as well hiring we have team retention. So if you are a salon leader, there’s a few things for you. We have clients, we have revenue, and then we’re gonna wrap things up with education. So if you are an independent educator, if you’re a stylist, if you’re a salon leader, if you’re in the industry at all, listen up. I think this will be a good one. It is beefy. It’s a mix of great news and news that will require some change, so just be open minded as you listen to this one. I hope you enjoy. So let’s start with prediction number one.
I would like for all stylists and salon leaders to continue with earned price increases. However, if you have settled into unearned price increases, I think this will be the year they really backfire. We saw this is not so much a prediction, like that’s not like mind shattering to me, that’s kind of like, come on, we’ve seen this fall apart since 2023, but I think that 2025 is like flatline. I think that there was a little bit of a grace period of like, oh, you were kind of doing some unjustified price increases and you were chalking it up to cost of goods and doing some weird stuff, but it was kind of OK and I think in 2026 it’s like, no, it’s not OK, we need to backtrack now. Like I think cleanup crew is gonna come in in 2026 for any unjustified price points or price increases. So let’s talk about how we know something is unjustified. I have seen some new stylists entering the industry at wild price points.
Not always, and as soon as I say that the salon owners are like, yeah, these Gen Z stylists think they’re cooler than they are, I’m not even talking about that. I’m, I’m talking about salon owners overpricing new stylists because cost of everything has gotten so expensive or. Or the owner’s like, I wanna take less clients, but if my clients are going to the newest person, they’re paying 50% and I can’t afford that, so it’s like we jack up this person’s prices to their own demise. If somebody is overpriced in the market, it will impact everybody involved, the stylist, the salon owner, the clients, it will be challenging. And I never have been of the belief that the salon just has to eat the cost. Like if something goes up, we’ll just screw you. Like you, you’ve been doing these unjustified price increases. Now you’re gonna suffer and you’re gonna be at a profit loss and that’s gonna stink. I’m not saying that either, but what I’m saying is every price increase you do has to be justified. So when we’re looking at the seven factors of pricing, it’s capacity, utilization, demand, timing, service structure and specialty, cost of goods, and location.
We look at those in a dynamic fashion around here, so that means just because your timing has changed doesn’t mean your pricing changes. Just because your specialty has changed doesn’t mean your pricing changes. Just because your demand has changed, does not mean your pricing changes. We look at all 7, and the reason why I look at all 7 and how they interact with each other is because I’ve seen too many price increases fail. I’ve seen reckless business coaches say like, oh my gosh, your demand is so high, you must do a price increase. Sometimes that screws somebody. And so instead we look at all seven. If you want a rundown of that, you can listen to Thriving Sales podcast episode 221. I break down all seven factors a little bit slower, but you wanna make sure all seven of those things say yes, you should do a price increase, and if they do, you do it. You don’t hold because we have to understand the cost of living is going up. The cost of living is expected to increase in 2026 by 3% in our industry because of the way we’re paid and the way our businesses operate, whether you’re a commission stylist, a salon owner, or a booth renter, that means your revenue has to increase by 6% in 2026 to sustain, not for your lifestyle to get better, to sustain.
So if you were doing $50,000 in services this year, you have to do $53,000 in services next year for your lifestyle to stay identical. So we wanna make sure that we are growing forward. We want to do our justified price increases as they come, but we don’t want to do them wonky. If it’s not there, don’t do it. I think it’s gonna be really painful for those who do price increases that weren’t really earned. So that goes into prediction number 2. Cost of goods and annual price increases, I think we’re gonna see those phase out. 2022 was the start of the Great Divide, 2023 we really started to feel it, 2024, it hit hard. 2025 we’re still reeling from it. I think 2026 is still gonna be fairly painful. I think that people have finally come around on like, OK, so some of these things we did are no good. So annual price increases, please do not do 1 January 2026. I think it will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
If you’re already having demand issues, that’ll be it. That’ll really do you in. I wouldn’t do it. Cost of goods increases have been failing us for two years now. If you are still looking at, my cost has gone up, I have to pass it on. I’d be very wary. I also, I didn’t include this in the episode, but I’m gonna say it as a sideline. It doesn’t get a whole point. The parts and labor method that’s become very, I’m gonna say trendy in the industry in the last couple of years, I’ve never loved it. I’m not ready to say it’s gonna fail in 2026 because I don’t think that that’s true. I think before 2030 it will though. It makes me very nervous. Now this could be a prediction I’m totally wrong on. We’ll see. I don’t think at scale the market is ready for it, and I think that because over the next few years we’re going through this divide where there’s a real pinch on middle class salons, especially when I say middle class salons, I mean not the most high-end luxury and not the most economy like get in quick and get out quick, like the bulk, it’s the bulk of the industry, probably 80%. are gonna feel this squeeze in the next few years, and I think for clients when they’re starting to make discerning choices, I think it’s one they’re going to sway away from. Again, I could be totally wrong, but it does make me nervous, so do with that what you will. Prediction number 3. There is a new trendy pricing model that I think we’re gonna see a huge backfiring of next year. I think we’re gonna see people who implement it and try it and have to come crawling back.
So, the risky pricing model that I continue to be asked about is factoring in fixed costs into their pricing strategy. Every few years, a new Pricing model emerges. This is the latest, so it looks something like this. You take your fixed expenses, plus your variable expenses, plus your desired paycheck.
You just take all those factors into account, you divide by the average number of clients you see in a month, and that’s what your average ticket needs to be. You’re like, well, this is how much it costs for me to run my business, this is how much it costs for me to live my life, divided by how many clients I see, my clients are just gonna have to pay for it. I don’t know of a business that’s successfully doing that at scale. I’m sorry, I don’t know of an industry that’s successfully doing that at scale. I do believe if there was a stylist who was massively successful, massively successful, had a ton of demand, was very knowledgeable, great customer experience, already had a waitlist to work with them. People are just like foaming at the mouth to get in their chair. I think they could pull this off. I think they could pull off a lot of things. I think they could charge really out their prices and still do just fine. So for them, totally. I think this model would work great. Do I think a model like that would work for the average stylist?
I don’t. I think it’s really dangerous, to be quite honest, because it doesn’t account for the facts like we see style and think of it this way, like we see stylists all the time. Time move into studio suites that they can’t afford. Invest in color or color lines that they really can’t afford, and so what you’re doing is you’re saying, well, I’m just gonna do whatever I wanna do business wise. I’m gonna live my life however I live it, which again, please, we all know people are living beyond their means, but this is what I’ve decided I need to do. My clients are just gonna have to figure it out. Like it’s, it’s just, I think you’re setting yourself up for low demand. I wouldn’t do it that way, and I do think we’re gonna see a collapse of that model in 2026. We saw it kind of popularized this year. I think it’s gonna phase out. OK, marketing, so this is going to be prediction number 4. Businesses with the most online reviews will win. So this is just to give context, I’ve been coaching to Google my business since 2019. No, excuse me, 2017 is the first time it hit Thriver. So we’ve been coaching to Google My Business for nine years, but it’s now called Google Business Profile, but it’s the same thing, and it’s where all the Google reviews live. I’ve been coaching to it for nine years, so it’s not like I’m just now saying like, try reviews, don’t, no, I get it. I think that reviews are number one. I think for a long time it was like Instagram was number one, reviews are important, Facebook was in there, people are like, what about TikTok? I think that’s fine. I, I would still diversify your social media efforts. I think the game will become for the next several years, but really starting in 2026, whoever has the most reviews wins. I think we’re gonna see that at scale.
That’s where big team salons are really gonna get an advantage because a team salon could rack up 250 new reviews in 6 months if they wanted to. Like if they really buckled down and did it, I’ve seen it happen before, they could certainly get 300 or 400 in a year, no problem. When you look at an individual stylist, if they get 30 in a year, it’s good progress, right? And so that’s where the team-based salons are gonna have a huge upper hand advantage. And even when I say team-based, it could be a booth rental team. Now that being said, somebody’s gonna message and be like, Britt, but you’ve always said all stylists need their own individual review accounts. I still feel that way. It’s not like both things can. Be true. I, I would protect my brand and make sure I had my own individual account for reviews as well, but if I’m part of a salon team that already has 2345, 600 online reviews, I’m now part of a massive powerhouse versus just trying to do it on my own. So I do think whomever has the most reviews wins is gonna be really trendy next year. Prediction number 5, user generated content is going to win. So, we have really seen a difference in social media content over the last few years. I think we’re like really in transition right now.
Does everybody feel that like, oh, the earth is moving beneath us on this one. So for a while there was like influencer culture, which completely died. Influencer culture died in 2020 and 2021, and all the influencers don’t wanna talk about it because it’s like so hard to talk about, it died, it’s been dead for a few years. So if you still have influencers saying like, hey, love your work, if you can do my hair for free, I’ll shout you out and share some posts, they are really hurting because that market hasn’t worked well in several years. It’s never worked well for our industry in my opinion, but that influencer thing died, and why did it die? Because most, I don’t know about you, but for most of us we don’t say what are the Kardashians using these days like we used to look up to these like influencers with 300 or 400,000 followers and say like I’ll take one of what she’s having.
We still do that to a degree, but the market’s really softened and now we see more buying power and more influence in micro influencers, which is what we’ve coached to since 2019. The concept of micro influencers and we’re seeing a lot more power coming from people you know, small influencers, individuals that don’t have a mega following, it’s just a real person and we trust their opinion actually more because now we’re trained to see if somebody’s promoting something you’re like oh they got a paycheck. And it doesn’t feel authentic versus if your neighbor says something you’re like, oh yeah, I trust Lily. I’m sure she’s being correct, and it just gives us more confidence and whatever buying decisions we make. With that being said, UGC is gonna be huge.
I always use this for example, if I was to come on this podcast, and I, I do it all the time, right? I come on this podcast and like my programs are great. Thrivers is amazing, it changes people. Lives we’ve helped 17,000 people, even as I’m saying that you’re like barf, barf, barf, self promotion versus if I had one person come on here and for 90 seconds be like, hey, this is my name, this is my Instagram handle, and working with Britt I tripled my revenue. I went from $60,000 as a stylist to now I make $180,000 a year behind my chair, you’d be like, wait, what? Them saying it versus me saying it lands different, correct? It’s the same when people are considering you for hair services, and so you’ve been likely doing this in a tiny way by showing afters of your work, but it lands wrong because when you show afters of your work, it lands like, look what I did, look what I did, look what I did, look what I did, it lands like when I brag about myself, it’s the same thing. Versus if clients are sharing about what their experience is like working with you, if they’re the ones telling the stories, they’re the ones with the content being created, it lands different. I do think that POV is gonna work in 2026 in the biggest, best way. OK, prediction number 6, Google Gemini plus Instagram plus chat GPT is winning. So if you’re part of the latest thriving stylist method update, we talk about all these things. We talk about how to utilize chat GPT, how we’re gonna utilize AI to amplify our marketing, where Instagram is changing and where Google Gemini plays into all of this. We all know earlier this year, I shared it on the podcast months ago. That Instagram all of a sudden decided that they were going to allow their photos to be indexed on Google. Why did they do that? Because they’re in a panic and they started to realize that people are leaning more into Google search, Gemini AI when looking for resources versus turning to social media. You all, we have to pay attention.
If you are still primarily focused on Instagram, you are way behind, way behind. Look at where the world is heading. So yes, clients are finding stylist on chat GPT. Clients are leaning into Google Search and Gemini chat GPT, where is it sourcing its information? Not from the universe, it’s sourcing from Google and from Bing and from search engines. Connect the dots. That’s why whomever has the most reviews is going to win, whomever’s website is optimized is going to win. So when people tell me like, oh my gosh, clients found me on chat GPT, it’s like they found you on Google and Bing. Chat GPT found you through the SEO that you have or have not created and it showed up in chat GPT. So you have to, you know, when people say like follow the money, follow the pattern, where is that data coming from? That’s how to win on social. OK, prediction number 7, prepare for a shift back to employment big time. Now I’ve been talking about this for a few years. Watch it play out in 2026. Watch, watch, watch. If you have an employee-based salon, congratulations. I hope you’ve set yourself up to.
Really successful employer, because I will say stylists now are a bit more picky when it comes to employment, but if you are set up like in a modern way, in a celebratory way, in a way that makes stylists feel like, why would I go independent? It’s so much better here, you’re about to have a huge come up. OK, so prediction number 7, we’re here in the hiring category, and I want you to prepare for a shift back to employment. Yep, we have already been seeing the tricklings of this, so again, this is not me being like, I think, like we’re seeing it at scale, a lot of stylists choosing to go back to employment. I talked to booth rental owners and they’re like, I’m trying to hire renters and I only get employees who are applying. A lot of commission-based salons are like, this is the best, because there’s such a rush back to people realizing being an entrepreneur is harder than they thought. It was gonna be and if you’re a booth renter or a studio suite owner, you’re an entrepreneur you live and die by your decisions. There’s no paycheck to back you up. It’s just you. I am seeing so much social content being created by people being like it’s OK to admit that being a business owner isn’t what you thought it was going to be. I saw this great post from an influencer the other day who was like, I went back to a 9 to 5. I’m over it. This has been a good run. It’s harder than people think.
I’m exhausted. I want a paycheck. You’re gonna see a lot more of that and it’s going to start to be like, I think there was this pressure, especially in our industry, to like you haven’t made it until you’ve done it on your own and then people are like, wait, what? Like I think people have now experienced it and they’re like that’s OK. I like living at home like I think people are realizing like, but it can be so good here. Now, not all employee-based salons are good salons, for sure. I’m saying the really exceptional modernized salons that have evolved forward are going to have a heyday. The salons that are stuck on like ways of leadership and management from like the 90s and early 2000s, you’re gonna still really suffer and struggle, but the salons that really modernized what it looks like to be an employee in this industry, oh my gosh, you’re gonna make more money and have more success.
Than you ever believed possible and so is your team because I do think that we’re seeing a real interest in clients being in an environment like that as I think the world at large is is fairly nervous about things like AI and how it’s going to isolate us and we’re losing the human connection having places like Solange and that social setting is going to become even more important like we’re gonna see a real resurgence back to that and this is the beginning of it. It’s a very exciting time. Now, if you’re a booth rental owner and you’re like, oh my gosh, I hate the Brits just saying this, don’t be. Some of the booth rental salon owners we’re coaching right now in Thriving Leadership are doing ridiculously well, like better than I’ve seen booth rental salon owners ever do, because they’ve created a very legal. And a very juicy team-based environment in an independent setting, so it is very possible it takes refinement and advanced skill for sure to pull off, but it’s being done really, really well and very profitably. OK, prediction number 8, mentorship programs and salon mentorship programs are in short supply and in high demand, so meaning. If you are in a state where you can have apprentices, I think that’s gonna have a huge come up and really good mentorship programs, not really junkie ones, like really, really good ones. So when you look at the fact that between 2022 and 2025, 3 big states have cut required cosmetology hours by at least 33%. So California’s down, Ohio’s down, Virginia’s down, um, we have deregulation bills being passed coast to coast. There are states pending deregulation coast to coast.
We have more bills that are coming down the pike like we’re seeing less education, so people are coming into the industry less educated, and then we roll our eyes and we’re like, oh, this is the worst. No, we do something about it. And if you’re the safety net that can catch these people again going back to prediction number 7, the opportunity for you is massive, the difference being that. Those who are graduating now are smarter than we were 1520 years ago, 10 years ago even, and you can’t just have a mediocre program, it can’t be like self-serve. It does have to be a true mentorship, but if it is, and it’s very organized and well run and very structured and promises are kept and it runs clean, you’re going to do incredibly well. OK, let’s come to team retention. So this is gonna be prediction number 9. All stylists can expect the owner to provide a significant amount of clients, even booth renters. Oh sorry, I know that’s one of the ones that for owners is like please don’t say that. I’m saying it because it’s true. Again, that’s one where I almost feel like I’m being chey saying it’s a prediction like this is the expectation. I’m reporting on what’s already happening on that one. This always blows salon owners’ minds because. For many, many decades, maybe forever, it was the responsibility of each individual stylist to build their clientele, whether they be an employee or a renter, and heck, I said that I said that I was like if you’re a stylist, no matter how you work, it’s your responsibility to fill your chair. I do still feel that way to a degree, however, there’s been a big pendulum swift because of the introduction to studio suites in our industry in such a huge way. It begs the question of what are you doing for me that I cannot do for myself?
If I work in your salon, what can you do for me that I cannot do for myself? And as I have talked to more stylists and I’ve really leaned into that question, they’re not saying, oh, I want a retirement savings plan. I want health insurance like now we’re living in a time where people can do those things themselves like they’re figuring it out. What they’re saying is mark it for me, fill my chair if you can market for me and fill my chair, I’d rather work for you than on my own. And we’re seeing that as being the real linchpin. So if you’re a salon who is not currently driving 5 to 10 new guest requests per stylist per month to your chair, buckle up because the salons that are doing it in 2026 and beyond are going to win. OK, this is starting to get a little heavy, so let’s go into clientele. Prediction number 10, the softening of policies. So. In 2021 it became very trendy to go very heavy on policies, and it was because I’ve talked about this on previous episodes, so I don’t wanna get too in the weeds on it. What happened was our industry shrank. We lost about one third of service providers from 2020 to 2021. We lost a lot of our industry, so there was this huge surge of. Clients who needed places to go and it gave us a false sense of security and we were like, oh my gosh, our salons have been closed, we have more clients to serve than ever we need to have gatekeeping, we need digital consultations we need cancellation policies we need no show policies, credit cards on file we made it so complex and at the time I understood why it was happening, but it was like a long term solution to a short term problem.
So then what happened was in 2023 all that pressure really receded. And the industry normalized, but we didn’t roll back the policies and in fact some of you doubled down on them and now you’re charging clients like 50% of their service charge if they don’t show up. We’re doing credit card required at time of booking, we’re doing late fees, we’re doing deposits like big deposits on services when we don’t even understand legally what we can do around those things. So something that comes up a lot whenever I talk about policies or processes or being too strict is people say like well hotels do it. Hotels have their own governance that they’re able to operate under just because one type of business does it does not mean that we can do it. That’s like a doctor saying, well, I’m gonna. Start cutting people’s hair. Well hairstylists do it, yeah, but their license doesn’t allow for it. There’s certain laws that protect hotels and protect all different types of industry, and they’re able to do all kinds of different things. We can’t just adopt whatever we want and call it the way that it is. So what’s happened is that a lot of stylists and salons are saying, well, if you don’t like our policies go somewhere else and so clients are saying, OK, I’m gonna go somewhere else and then we blame the clients and we’re like clients just don’t respect us they’re not willing to pay our prices they don’t respect our time they don’t respect our policies we’ve made it very hard. Are we providing a service or not? And I know as soon as I say this, people are gonna be like, you don’t get it, trust me, I get it, but when we say things like. I charged half of the service even if the person doesn’t show up because what would that person say if they went to their job and didn’t get paid for half their day. They’re in a different industry than you. You are a business owner. When we have chosen to serve a clientele, like sometimes that’s the brakes. We chose this. I know that there’s parts of it that suck. There’s parts of it that are also phenomenal, and we love those parts. You kind of can’t take the good with the bad. If you want to keep your policies and, and go with them and be strict and charge everybody, that’s fine, but you will lose clients that way and they will start falling to the people who don’t have policies like that. Here’s another one, something that people ask me is like what should I do? More of my clients are showing up sick and as we head into cold and flu season, I don’t want that. I’m gonna show up sick.
If you tell me if I cancel, I’m gonna have to pay 50%. I’m gonna show up sick and then I’ll say things like, well, we make exceptions, yeah, but I don’t know if you’re gonna make an exception for me or not so now I’m terrified so I’m gonna just show up with a mask on and let’s hope you don’t get it like, or maybe not even and like I’m just sniffling and I don’t say anything so we can’t have it both ways. And then the other question I’m seeing posed is, so are you allowed to call in sick and the client is just like screwed like too bad, sorry, it’s my life. I’m sick. I’m not coming. I’ll get you in when I can, or do you give them 50% off their next service? We’ve just really overpolicized without thinking about long term what it does to our perception. OK, we could do a whole episode on that if you all want to talk about that more. I’m happy to do it. OK, so let’s talk about prediction number 11. Let’s shift into revenue. Again, this is a beefy one. I think there is going to be a massive disruption in salon retail.
Sorry. And I’ve started voicing my concerns about retail for a couple of years. And recently I started seeing others expressing the same. And it’s one of those things where I’m always nervous to say something that I know is very counterculture because I know that not everyone’s going to like it, not everyone’s going to believe it, and that’s totally OK. But now that I see other people’s expressing concerns and looking at the numbers and questioning the system, I feel like we need to talk about this, even if it’s uncomfortable, even if we don’t like it, we have to talk about it. So in 2022, I successfully predicted the Great Divide. It was essentially the biggest divide of successful stylists and salons failing that we’ve seen in decades. We are in it, it has happened. So I predicted that going on four years ago. I’m going to now predict salon retail disruption at scale. I think we’re already in it. I think it’s gonna continue happening. I think that we need to understand what’s happened to retail in our industry. The model has changed the way that we work with distributors has changed the way the distributors work with clients has changed, but our systems and our expectations have not caught up. This has to be the year we catch up.
I encourage everybody, this is another one if you want to see a full episode on this, we can talk about it more and I’ll break everything down and give you real facts and real figures and real numbers and we can do it. I’m happy to do it. If you wanna just cross check on your own, I’d love for you to take a look at how much you’ve invested into retail this year, how much you’ve earned in retail, and count up how much retail you have sitting on your shelves right now and find the margin in it and ask yourself how much work it is. If you are a team-based salon, look at how stylist price increases are contingent on it and or paychecks are contingent on it. Keeping in mind the way that we know retail has changed. And ask yourself if your system is antiquated or not.
And what we love to do is we love to blame the clients. The clients don’t wanna shop small, the clients don’t wanna support me. No, the clients are just humans, and the clients have adapted to the way the world has adapted, and we’re looking like grandmas and grandpas staying stuck in like 2004, like, but remember how it used to be? Yeah, I do remember how it was 21 years ago. I was there too, I totally remember. It’s just not like that anymore. Again, that’s probably worth a deep dive, and we can certainly do that. I think that 2026 we’re gonna see a massive disruption in salon retail sales programs. Again, I’m happy to talk more about that. OK, prediction number 12, I believe we’re gonna see a lot more salons going hybrid. I think that we’re seeing booth rental salons taking an interest in hiring their first team members, which is very exciting. What I don’t think is gonna happen is we’re gonna see team-based salons slip backwards into booth rental. I don’t think it’s gonna go both ways. I think that employment is trending right now. I think that a lot more. Salons are curious about it and open to it, and I think it’s a very exciting time for that. The way that we look at employment when we coach, is that a stylist would not make more money going off to booth rent, so it makes them want to stay, which I think there’s a few things that have made historically stylists choose to leave employee-based salons. One. tragic leadership, bad culture, leaders that don’t see their flaws and aren’t receptive to feedback, all that kind of stuff, right? That’s always gonna be there. But 2, when stylists run the numbers and they’re like, why am I staying? I would make more money leaving, those are usually the two biggies.
And so if we can eliminate both of those, everybody’s gonna win and do super well, and we are seeing. Booth rental salons who are saying, I’ve kind of maxed out on the booth rental side of things, where can I go from here? And there are like really sexy, exciting ways to make opportunities for stylists where they’re still making great money, they wouldn’t want to leave because the culture’s so good. It is very possible and we’re seeing a shift more that direction. OK, prediction number 13. This one hurts my little heart, and I, I’ve said some other predictions in this direction too over the last few years, but I’m gonna say it more bluntly this year. Independent education distrust, um, I think it’s probably already very well established, but again, I think it’s like the monster in the room we’re not talking about that we should talk about. This one’s been a long time coming. Something I think it’s important to recognize is independent education didn’t exist in our industry until 10 years ago. It first started in 2015, like it still is relatively new, and I do believe I was at the forefront of a lot of that. I was one of the very first ever independent business coaches for the industry. And there was a very small pool of us and not everybody who was there in that pool is still teaching now what I was doing and the way I show up has definitely changed over time. Like I don’t think any of us are doing things as was done back then for sure, but. When you look at what happened 2020 to 2024, there was a big independent education boom. A lot more people decide they want to jump in the arena. I think it was in a lot of ways a really good thing. I think having a variety of voices and a variety of points of view is very important. I think the challenge was, it takes a long time to be a good educator. It really does. You can be a decent teacher pretty quickly to be a true educator and a mentor. Takes a long time and it takes a lot of reps and it takes, in my opinion, I’ve always said this, it takes a lot of 1 to 1 coaching, it takes a lot of mentorship, it takes a lot of falls on your face, it takes a lot of getting to know what you’re good at and getting to know what you’re bad at and what happened was a lot of people said, I love doing hair. I decided I’m gonna teach and they produce an online course and they put it out to the world and they just. Didn’t really know how to do it effectively and that’s totally fair. It doesn’t make anybody a bad person, but what happened was stylists and salon owners have spent 10s, $20 300 dollars, $40 500 dollars, $600 over $100,000 on bad education. And they’re tired of it. And so we’re seeing this pushback of like, if I don’t know that this is going to work, I’m not going to do it. I think it’s fair I think that there’s been a call for all independent education to clean it up, step it up, or step to the side. I also think that’s very fair. And if you haven’t noticed, I’ve spent this whole year leveling up because I think it’s required. I think that we need to do right by our industry. I think it’s really important. We’ve seen the demand for it, and it’s time to step up to the call and or shift towards prediction number 14, which I think is an option as well. There is a big interest in in-person education again, big, big, big. Big, big, big interest from myself included.
I’m very interested in going places to learn things in person, big. I don’t think that it’s just our industry. I think it’s a movement as a whole. Again, kind of going back to what I was saying before, we’ve become very isolated as a people over the last few years and I’m an introvert, so trust me, I love my isolation, but I also know how dangerous it is to just like stay in my little focus bubble and not get out more and so for a lot of people there’s there it’s like I wanna get in the room, I wanna be with the people, I wanna see the things in person. I do think in-person education is going to have a heyday. I also think service-based training is gonna boom. So if you’ve not been paying attention. People who are teaching like really incredible cutting, coloring, formulation, placement classes in person, sell them out in 2.5 seconds. Like, literally immediately. And you have to be good. You can’t be crappy because trust me, I hear the stories too. I know some of you have followed some big name educators for a while, flown and spent money to go to their classes and been like, I now I feel like I wasted my money. I don’t trust that person anymore and don’t know how they got as big as they did. I know, I heard those stories too. But when you find somebody who really knows how to educate and you see them in person and you’re able to watch them up close do a cut, do a color, navigate a challenge, do a formulation without cheating without doing weird stuff at the bowl to make it look good like when it’s really done well and properly. It’s an incredible transformational experience and we’re seeing a rush back to that as I talked to stylist, a lot of them are saying I went and saw so and so in class last fall. They were so amazing going back in the spring and then I’m gonna see what they’re doing again next fall. Like they’re chasing these people around the country because their education is so good. I do think we’re going to see more of. That now what I do here from stylists, this I guess is not another prediction but like a bonus tip, it’s not the brand education it’s not just like oh whoever you’re bringing into the salon using points for free, that’s not really who they’re interested in they want to see somebody who has a technique or a skill or an end result that they really, really are craving to understand how to do. If you’re able to see more education like that, people will jump through hoops to experience it. So it’s not that people don’t want to learn the bar is high, people wanna learn good stuff. People have been burned relatively badly over the last few years with mediocre or bad stuff, and they’re asking for something that’s truly life changing, and I think that it’s fair. I think it’s totally fair. I don’t. I don’t think it’s a bad time to get into education. I think it’s a good time to get into education and do it smart. So if you wanna teach, you wanna give back, just make sure you put in the reps before you put something with a price tag out into the world.
Make sure that you can sleep easy at night knowing that it’s really a good investment and worth it, and then I think it can pay off. OK, 40 minutes. Our predictions episodes are historically the longest. Uh, this one is no exception. Let’s keep the conversation going. If there’s things you wanna talk more about, please, please leave me a rating or review on iTunes. Let me know what questions have come up for you, and we can dig in a little bit deeper. Again, there is a summary of this with more details and more tips. If you head to thrivingstylist.com/mstknow, you can. Download a PDF version. Um, it’s not a transcript. It is like a, a step by step breakdown of what we would advise with some additional like stories and shares and things like that. It’s a pretty good one. Totally free. You can download it again. That’s thriving stylist.com/mstknow if you want to get your hands on a copy. Hope this was a good one. I’m looking forward to 2026. I hope you are as well. So much love. Happy business building. I’ll see you on the next one.
