Intro: Do you feel like you were meant to have a kick-ass career as a hair stylist? Like you got into this industry to make big things happen?
Maybe you’re struggling to build a solid base and want some stability. Maybe you know social media is important, but it feels like a waste of time because you aren’t seeing any results. Maybe you’ve already had some amazing success but are craving more. Maybe you’re ready to truly enjoy the freedom and flexibility this industry has to offer.
Cutting and coloring skills will only get you so far, but to build a lifelong career as a wealthy stylist, it takes business skills and a serious marketing strategy. When you’re ready to quit just working in your business and start working on it, join us here where we share real success stories from real stylists.
I’m Britt Seva, social media and marketing strategist just for hair stylists, and this is the Thriving Stylist Podcast.
Britt Seva: What is up and welcome back to the Thriving Stylist Podcast. I’m your host, Britt Seva, and this is a very timely episode. We are going to talk about the holiday season of 2023 specifically.
This holiday season is hitting different and not just this-season’s-hitting-different-last-year-hit different. I want to talk about literally what’s happening in the industry right this second, and give you some insights as to how to best prepare, what’s to come, make sure that you’re set up for 2024. All the goodness.
Let’s first take a trip back in time. I have been coaching the holiday season success strategies for stylists and salon owners since 2012, almost a decade. I was coaching to these very—I would say a lot of them, innovative, always very predictable, deeply successful strategies that would help stylists and salon owners to increase revenue, increase structure, increase time with their families, increase profit margin, like literally all the things between October and November and December. It was like a Q4 massive push and it always worked great.
In August of 2022, I did my first formal workshop on these holiday season success strategies. Previously, I think I had only taught them in Thrivers, if I’m not mistaken. And in 2022, August of 2022, I formalized a workshop and taught some of the strategies that were tried, tested, and true, and then layered in some new stuff that I had a really strong hunch for.
What happened was, it was a hit and miss. The workshop was a massive success. October, November, and December come, and some people see ridiculously good results, like wild results as particularly on some of the more innovative strategies that we hadn’t seen come up before.
Then some people were like, “I did everything and I’m surprised,” like things weren’t feeling like they were expected.
And I was like, “What is happening? Are people just messing up the execution or was I not clear enough in my explanation?” No, it was neither of those things. Consumer behavior had changed and I couldn’t have caught it or predicted it.
I waited for the season to go through and then I asked on my Instagram stories and we actually sent out a little survey as well to my email list and I was like, “How were the holiday seasons for you? What did you notice?”
The confessions were so significant and the data just didn’t lie. I had a meeting with my team in January and we were planning out for the year ahead and I said, “We have to place a stronghold on holiday season success strategy because I need an entire next season to study and strategize before I feel confident teaching to anything.”
I’ve had the year to do all of that and I, yet again, did a quick survey of those who follow me on social media and just asked how the holiday season was for them this year. Based on last year’s data and this year’s data, I am confident in saying that things have radically and at least fairly permanently changed in our industry as it relates to holiday season. I really want to dig into it.
So the reason I give you that backstory is I want you to know that to me, this is not a flippant topic. This is not something that I was like, “Oh, this would be a cool podcast topic.” I’ve literally been studying and preparing for this for one full year, and I wasn’t sure how I was going to deliver this data. I didn’t know if it would be a big, fat workshop or I’d create a full training on it. But it’s really not like that. It’s not that deep. I actually think that listening to this episode, you’re going to get a lot of insights that are going to give you relief on the flip side, so I’m excited for it.
Let’s first look at the hard facts and data, which is where I always like to start, if we ever can. Going back to 2020. In 2020 at the holiday season, which generally when you look at reporting, this was the US Census Bureau was reporting this. So very official, legal, government-sponsored agency said that in 2020, spending by Americans throughout the holiday season decreased by 3%. Interesting, right?
In 2020, there was only a 3% dip in holiday spending. Why? Stimulus. Yeah, because the government was putting money in our pocket and so we tried to do our best to keep things normal. It had been a brutal year for a lot of people and family had become so, so important, like more important than ever. I think a lot of people were just trying to create normalcy.
Essentially, spending was pretty solid in 2020 at the holiday season. If your salon was open at that time and you were doing hair, you were loving life because the salon was jammed. 2020 was a good holiday season.
Then in 2021, spending decreased by 20%, not from where it was in 2020, but where it was in 2019, which means between 2019 and 2021 holiday season spending decreased by 23%.
Y’all, that’s not little, that’s massive. That is a huge shift in consumer behavior for a holiday season spent to decrease by 23% in just two years. Something radical is shifting in the consumer’s mindset and we cannot ignore that.
Okay, so that was 2021. Why did that happen? Well, because stimulus was running out and people were getting back to normal and the economy was starting to shift and change and people started to get a little more nervous.
2022, we saw a bounce back and holiday season spending increased by 17% over where it was in 2021. But that means we’re still down from 2019. That means that ever since 2019, holiday season spending and habits has changed and we are seeing a decrease in interest in spending money. The data is showing that that’s not really going to change.
Reuters reported that the US holiday sales in 2023 are expected to occur at the slowest pace in five years. That’s data reported from the National Retail Federation, the NRF, and Deloitte is actually reporting the same data. Deloitte’s a very well-respected consumer behavior site.
We don’t have 2023 data yet. We’re still in the season, but everyone is reporting that it is going to be the slowest pace of spending that we’ve seen in the last five years.
So when people say, “Oh, of course recession,” “Oh, of course inflation,” when I was reading these reports, it’s interesting. That’s actually not what it was attributing it to and I thought that was fascinating. Like I’ve been saying, yes, consumers are definitely in a different head space right now.
However, I feel like I’ve said this so many times, but I feel like it’s not always sinking in, so it’s worth saying again: people are still spending money. You all have to understand that like money is being sent, people are spending money all the time, every single day. People are spending money, people’s savings accounts are smaller than they’ve been in decades because people are spending money, they’re pumping back into the economy. If they’re not spending with you, it’s simply because they’re making a more—how do I want to say this? More researched and higher perceived value spending decision. They’re deciding that you’re simply not worth their worth, their investment this year. And that’s a time investment. That’s an emotional investment. That’s a financial investment.
Today’s consumer is not cheap, they’re picky. Just go ahead and tape that as a sign in your back break room. Today’s consumer ain’t cheap, they’re just picky. That’s the sign because that’s the simplest way to understand where today’s consumer mindset is at.
When you look at these reporting sources, they’re just saying people just don’t want to spend their money on stuff that feels like random junk. Let me give you a simplified example. The holiday seasons for me growing up, when I thought about what went in our Christmas stockings, it was literally junk. I’d imagine that my parents went to the Dollar Tree or whatever it was at that time and just bought a bunch of whatever and threw it in there. You’d go through the stocking and it was all very exciting or whatever, but at least in my family, most of that was almost throwaway items. When I say junk, I don’t even mean like a new box of crayons. It was weird, just weird junk that you’d throw inside the stocking.
With my kids, I’m very intentional and maybe it’s not stuff that they love, but it’s like socks that I know they’re going to wear. I’m just big on it. At the holidays, I don’t buy throwaway junky stuff or like funny, funny gifts. I know people do that. To me, I’m just very particular about how I spend money. I always have been and so I just don’t participate in that.
More people are becoming wired in that mindset of I’m not going to buy a gift to buy a gift. I’m not going to go get my hair done to get my hair done. I’m not going to buy a bottle of shampoo to give to my sister ’cause maybe she’d like it. People just are not thinking that way anymore. That used to be a more rare mindset. It’s becoming more and more common.
This I thought was interesting too. This is coming out of Deloitte. They said the promotional timing will be crucial this year as consumers intend to wrap up their shopping in just 5.8 weeks. This is a timeframe that has shrunk down from 7.4 weeks pre-pandemic. That’s a direct quote from Deloitte. What that means is people used to be in the spending mindset around the holidays for—what does it end up being? 30% longer, maybe more than that. 35% longer than they are now.
The spending mentality has simply changed and it’s in our industry, it’s in the electronics industry, toys, gaming, you name it. This is just where people are at.
Knowing this data, knowing this shift in consumer behavior, knowing the shift in trend, I asked on my Instagram story again, I said, “Hey, I’m doing a podcast on holiday season and how it’s changed. Anybody willing to share some quotes?” Y’all, you—can I just give a shout out to y’all and how amazing you are because whenever I ask for quotes, you just don’t disappoint. Thank you to those who participated. This was so amazing.
Okay, I’m going to read you what came through. First quote comes from Ashley and she says, “Guests have realized people and experiences matter more than getting their hair done. It’s been slow.”
Another stylist says, “This is the slowest I’ve ever been, hardly any new clients. It kind of freaks me out after being in demand for years past.”
Lauren says, “Lots of clients are changing their services, less big transformations.”
Rex says they’ve had a lot of clients lately change their appointment to a later date.
Mina says, “More clients rescheduling to late December and January 2024, stretching their appointments out, not even getting in pre-holidays.”
Amanda says, “My clients are wanting to spend more time with friends and family, want quick visits, or are skipping their appointment altogether.”
Jenny says, “It’s definitely been slower than usual.”
Susan said, “Openings for December at this time, midday, lots of shifting times, but folks are slower to book. So I’m gaper heading into the month of December.”
Alice says, “People aren’t concerned about getting in before the holidays. They just want to enjoy their time without feeling the pressure. I’m not seeing many new guest requests around the holidays. I have the availability, but nobody’s requesting to get in. It’s been slow for me. Last three months was booked solid. Now I hit November and December and I’ve had so many cancellations.”
Another Amanda says, “This is the year I’m seeing more cancellations than ever before.”
And Fernando says, “It’s definitely gotten slower.”
Over and over and over again, you’re seeing these patterns. It’s been slower, it’s been gaper. People are stretching out their appointments, people are coming in in January.
I thought it was interesting. A lot of people are saying they’re not seeing any new guest requests. I want to touch on that for a second. To me, that’s normal. But also, everybody’s version of normal is biased.
For me, I do feel like the holidays tend to be a quieter time for referrals and new clients. So if you’re feeling like your regulars aren’t coming in or they’re stretching their appointments out and you’re like, “And on top of that, I’m not getting any new guests,” don’t add on that additional layer of pressure. I personally think it’s pretty typical that come towards the end of the year, less and less people are like, “Ooh, and let me find a new stylist now.” It’s like there’s already so many things going on that the idea of finding a new service provider or trusting somebody with your hair in a high-pressure season when you don’t know if it’s going to go well, most people just aren’t willing to tackle that.
If you’re not seeing a lot of new guest requests, I wouldn’t put a ton of weight into that. To me that seems pretty typical, traditional, blah blah. But the shifting, the frequency, the stretching out appointments, the cancellations, the changing times, all of that is different.
Here’s the key points I think you need to take away and understand.
One, our industry is becoming less seasonal and more predictable. This is not a bad thing. This is a wonderful thing. I want you to—I know the first 16 minutes of this episode have been a little bit less than thrilling. I want you to understand this is a good thing.
I’ve had many a business coach in my time and one of the things every business coach has said is that a seasonal business is a risky business. When you have a business where essentially the revenue is predictable every single month and revenue is growing incrementally month over month, that’s a healthy business model. I know most of us aren’t trying to sell our business, but if an investor or an evaluator were to come in and look at your business and you were making a certain amount, $10,000 a month in your business in January and then February you took a dip and then in March you came back and then April you made it 11,000. And then in May you made 11,000, but then in June, you made 6,000 and then in July, you made 8,000. Then come November and December, you make 15,000 a month. Most business investors actually see that as a very volatile business. It’s not ideal.
The ideal business has more flat-line-but-pacing-upwards revenue and that’s actually what you want.
While at surface level, we’re in this shift in the holiday season and we’re like, “Ooh, I don’t know if I like this,” learn to love it and I’m going to tell you exactly why.
Looking historically, I definitely over the years have had stylists who told me, “Britt, I love the holiday season. I make 25 to 30% of my revenue in the last six weeks of the year.” That’s a huge cash flow.
As people are seeing this unpredictably slow holiday season, the thought of losing 30% of your cash flow, which you wouldn’t lose that much, but let’s say even 10%, that’s a scary feeling.
What I invite you to do is heading into 2024, don’t expect a bump. Do not expect an end-of-year bump. If it happens, great, don’t plan for it. Plan to have a year where every single month you are looking to meet, achieve, or outpace the month before. So in February, we want to make a little bit more than January.
Before anybody says, “Yes, but there’s three less dates in the month,” I said what I said then: when you get to March, you want to make a little bit more money than you made in February, then in April, you want to make a little more money than you made in March, right? That’s a healthy business growth plan. I want you to strive for that instead.
The other thing we used to do at the holidays was expand our schedule, expand our hours. We’d work long and hard. Here’s the irony is we’d complain about it. And when I say we—it’s like me, the mouse in my pocket, my salon team, you probably.
I remember we were not a bitter people, but we were not the happiest of elves in the holiday season often because all of the See’s candy sitting in the break room in the world couldn’t make me feel better about being away from my five-year-old daughter the day before Christmas Eve. It made me sad. My kids were on these holiday breaks and I’m working. I didn’t love that feeling. Now knowing that you don’t have to work Monday through Saturday leading all the way through December, you don’t have to work night hours, squeeze people in, doing all these things, you can gain some of that family time back for yourself. That might be a really huge blessing.
Number two, I need you to understand that people cannot plan ahead like they used to. If you’ve been listening to the Thriving Stylist Podcast for any length of time, you know I feel a type of way about pre-booking. I started talking about pre-booking probably in 2021 and a lot of people were like, “I don’t know about this lady, I don’t know what she’s talking about.” Three years later, I’m getting mine.
This is what usually happens is I’ll share something and it hits the market and it’s soon and it makes people nervous. Do you believe me a little more now? People are just struggling to sustain a schedule weeks and weeks and in weeks in advance. Some people can do it. I’ve even heard from some of the stylists I coach and from some of my coaches in some areas in the United States, people are more stable and can do it. That’s great. Listen to your market. But what I need you to understand is if people are needing to change their appointments, you’re seeing more cancellations, listen to your market. The pressure has lifted. Adapt. Don’t panic, adapt.
Number three, and I love this one, people are simply becoming more comfortable coming as they are and focusing on joy rather than their appearances. I recently went to a Thanksgiving dinner with some family, some extended family and some of the women were rocking gray roots. And you know me, I don’t care, I don’t judge. In particular, I’m a very easygoing, laid back kind of style girl anyway, but I did hit my radar and I was like, that’s so interesting that in years past, I just wasn’t used to seeing it. And now people are just happy to be present and none of us judge them for not having their roots touched up. It’s all good.
I think it’s interesting that we’re just becoming a more evolved human beings species, maybe a little bit where we’re okay with people just being as they are, even if it’s not sheer perfection. Even if you have a chipped nail or you didn’t get your facial done or your roots aren’t touched up.
I got a really interesting quote from a stylist that I’ve been hanging with for a while. His name’s Chandler and I just think he’s so great. When I asked this question on Instagram, he responded and said, “People would rather get their hair done for the Eras tour than to see Aunt Susan at the holidays.” And I just thought that was so brilliant and it had a little chuckle with Chandler about it in the DMs, because it was just so accurate.
Chandler, you perfectly summed up exactly what’s happening as it’s like “I don’t care what Aunt Susan has to say when I see her on New Year’s Eve, I want to look good when I go somewhere that makes me happy.”
Again, our industry is becoming less seasonal and it’s becoming more about joy and living life in full and coming to the salon on my own terms. When it feels good to me, not on your schedule, that feels good to you, on my terms that feel good to me. You don’t have to like that that shift is happening. You just have to understand that it is.
Summing it up, I want you to rethink your schedule, particularly at the holidays. I want you to get better about building a strong growth strategy all year round. You cannot bank on a boom at the end of the year, so how are we going to grow consistently month over month?
I want you to implement a wait list. If you don’t already have one, be running one all year round. Certainly at the holidays. There will be gaps, it would be great to have a way to fill them.
I want you to still decorate the salon. In the salon, you can still do a lot of the things that I’ve coached to before. However, don’t just blindly do what worked in 2021. I want you to really think and say, “Does this match what my market is showing me?” All of your markets are different.
And now more than ever, we’re seeing that people are choosing to live their life a little bit differently. You don’t need to be posting holiday promotions on social media anymore. It doesn’t seem to be resonating.
I want you to just really think about as a local small business, what does my community need? They’d probably love it if they came into your shop or your stop and it was a little bit festive or maybe there was a holiday amenity or a treat or like I said, you’re sending out holiday cards. All of those things are still wonderful, but you don’t need to deck the halls so hard, if that makes sense. Take a little step back from it.
Lastly, create those monthly and annual revenue goals. I touched on that. I strongly suggest you do so heading into the new year.
Y’all, I hope this gave you some really great, really fun insights. I would love it if you left me a rating or review, share this on Instagram Stories, tag me in and let’s keep the conversation going.
As I always like to say, so much love, happy business building, and I’ll see you on the next one.
